Francesca Catalano’s Glimm outlook looked bleak late Saturday night. Yes, her Cesca bracket sat atop the Glimm standings with just two undecided games. But Duke held a commanding lead over Houston in the second Final Four game, and Cesca needed a Houston win to have a shot at not only winning the Glimm, but even finishing in the top three.

Then the unimaginable happened. 

My son is fascinated by the ESPN win probability calculator, so I looked this up: With 8:17 left in the game, Duke had a 98.5% chance of winning (and therefore Cesca’s odds of staying alive in the Glimm were 1.5%). With 2:30 left, Duke’s winning percentage was 97.1%. 

Yet Houston won, and now Cesca is in the driver’s seat.

Now, it’s down to two: If Florida beats Houston on Monday, Cesca will be your Glimm men’s champion. If Houston rides the momentum of this incredible win and beats Duke, Eric Jones will be your champion (his Jonesz02 currently is in second place, 2.5 points behind Cesca).

One champion has already been crowned in the men’s tournament: 7-year-old Sammy Eckerling has clinched the Kids Championship. His 116 points put him 1.5 points ahead of Kendal Gregor’s Kgregor and five points ahead of Nola Fowler. But all three picked Florida to win on Monday, so Kendal and Nola cannot catch Sammy. Henry Benham’s Henry B 3 is the closest kid to have picked Houston – but he trails Sammy by 18 points, an insurmountable deficit.

In the women’s tournament, we’re also down to two contenders: Michael Kern’s Mimi and Michael is in first place with 142 points, ahead of Lauren Kimball’s LK1 (136.5). Mimi and Michael picked South Carolina to win the championship, and LK1 picked UConn, so one of those two will be your women’s champion.

We also have a women’s champion already: Malcolm Stamm. Malcolm’s King bracket sits atop the kids standings, and he is the only kid to have picked either UConn or South Carolina to win.

Some GlimmBits:

* No matter what, we will have first-time champions in both the men’s and the women’s tournaments. None of the four Glimmers still fighting for a championship has won before.

* Eli Lester, Mrs. Glim’s grandson, has won the Glimm Scholarship — awarded to the top-finishing member of the Glim family. Eli entered five brackets this year, and all five are currently ahead of the other four members of the Glim family competing this year (his Eli 4 has clinched the Glimm Scholarship). This is Eli’s third Glimm Scholarship in the last five years.  

* Don’t forget: The Orlov is still up for grabs. The Orlov is awarded whoever finishes in the exact middle – this year, in 142nd place. Right now, five Glimmers are tied for 142nd, so it would come down to the tiebreak (whoever finished third in the tiebreak, not whoever finished first, because that’s the middle). But that’s likely to change once the championship results are factored in.

* The women’s championship is at 3 pm ET today, and the men’s championship is at 8:50 pm ET tomorrow.